Transcript [00:16] Shalom and welcome to Jerusalem studio. [00:18] The 34 months war between Israel and the [00:21] Islamist terrorist organization Hamas is [00:24] not over. A tense and partial ceasefire [00:27] prevails, punctuated by IDF operations [00:30] against persistent threats and [00:32] perpetrators of the October 7th [00:35] massacre. Meanwhile, US President Donald [00:38] Trump and the board of peace uh he [00:40] created have vested interests in showing [00:43] some type of progress towards Hamas's [00:46] disarmament and Israeli troop deployment [00:48] east of the yellow line, dissecting the [00:52] enclave. Having announced an agreement [00:55] to proceed, all that remains is the [00:58] small matter of implementing it now, [01:01] which entails domestic problems on both [01:03] sides of the line. So, what are the [01:06] prospects of both parties making good on [01:09] the deal and in what sequence? Joining [01:12] us to dissect the latest include Dr. Dan [01:16] Dyker, president of the Jerusalem Center [01:19] for Foreign Affairs and Security. It's [01:21] great having you with us, Dan. [01:23] >> Great to be here. Thank you, Jonathan. [01:26] >> Also joining us is Colonel in Reserve, [01:28] Olivia Rafovich, who is a senior fellow [01:31] at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy [01:33] and Security. It's great to have you [01:34] also with us, Olivia. [01:36] >> Thank you, Jonathan. [01:39] >> And last, but certainly not least, our [01:40] TV7 editor at large, Mr. Air Orin. Amir, [01:44] set the broader stage for us. How come [01:46] there is this symmetry between Israel [01:48] and Hamas? Two parties even indirectly [01:53] to negotiations over what will happen [01:56] but this being the reality now and uh as [01:59] you mentioned in your introduction [02:01] domestic politics not only in Gaza and [02:05] in Israel but also in the United States [02:08] all of that uh come into uh play. Now, [02:11] of course, the Israeli government, not [02:15] only because it is facing elections and [02:17] not only because in exactly two months [02:20] time we will have the third anniversary [02:22] of the [snorts] October 7th massacre, [02:24] the Israeli government can hardly [02:27] redeploy the IDF out of the so-called [02:30] yellow line back to the international [02:33] line, even if it is done gradually [02:37] without Hamas being disarmed. Are we [02:40] going to face the same threat all over [02:43] again? Uh unimaginable. [02:46] So we are now um focusing on sequencing. [02:51] Who is going to do what first? Um how [02:55] deep is the disarmament going to be? Who [02:58] is going to monitor it? Who is going to [03:01] report? And to be realistic, especially [03:05] after several cabinet ministers have [03:08] attacked Netanyahu, saying that uh he uh [03:12] was not uh truthful with them when [03:15] reporting on the deal. It is not going [03:18] to happen anytime soon. [03:21] >> Well, let's turn to uh Dr. Dker. [03:25] I just to put things out there, [03:28] October 7th, Hamas murdered some 1,200 [03:32] mostly civilians, wounded over 4,800 [03:35] others, kidnapped some 251 [03:40] civilians, mostly many of them were [03:42] murdered in the process. [03:45] And today we are faced with a scenario [03:49] in which Israel needs to succumb to this [03:52] terrorist organization by making [03:55] overtures and take its [03:58] will into account. I mean what am I [04:01] missing here? [04:03] Uh, I think you're missing nothing, [04:05] Jonathan, but I think we can add a [04:08] number of points and exclamation points [04:10] to the incisive observations that you [04:13] and and Amir Orin have made. Let's be [04:16] very clear. Hamas is the continuation [04:20] ideologically [04:22] of September 11th, October 7th. And I [04:25] I'll just mention interesting that our [04:27] other distinguished guest Olivia [04:29] Rafowitz and I were sitting together the [04:32] moment that the first tower was struck [04:35] back in September 11, 2001. And uh we [04:39] are together, all of us here, some [04:41] things never change, are assessing [04:44] uh what is the result of massive [04:47] political pressure on President Donald [04:49] Trump to bring home a victory in advance [04:54] of these uh fateful midterm elections [04:58] for his party and for himself [05:00] personally. because if he were to lose [05:02] these midterm elections, he would be [05:04] facing constant impeachment and [05:07] potential conviction which have very [05:09] far-reaching implications for him [05:11] personally and for his party [05:12] politically. So he is under great [05:14] pressure um to bring some sort of win [05:18] which he has until now failed to bring [05:21] uh on the thrron uh on the thrron front. [05:25] uh uh you can argue there is a framework [05:29] victory uh in the meantime on the [05:31] Lebanese front and it really accounts [05:33] for his very bombastic declarations of [05:36] peace uh by this what I would callou [05:42] it it it is a very poorly crafted [05:45] memorandum of understanding uh it's a [05:48] deal with so many holes in it it it is a [05:51] Swiss cheese uh memorandum of [05:53] understanding that leaves essentially [05:56] Hamas in power. Let's just remember [05:58] finally that for Islamists like Hamas uh [06:02] mobilized by the radical Shiite regime, [06:05] the Islamic Republic in Iran, any kind [06:08] of negotiation is an act of war by other [06:11] means. Uh they studied Clausowitz uh [06:14] carefully and what we're seeing here is [06:17] a continuation of Hamas's Islamic [06:20] warfare by other means. uh and it is [06:23] completely out of line with the original [06:26] Trump 20point plan that calls for [06:28] dradicalization [06:30] as one of the first uh conditions for [06:33] moving forward anywhere. The Hamas now [06:35] has said that that they're playing ball [06:38] here so that they don't become the [06:41] object of the blame game and they're [06:44] demanding that Israel, the IDF withdraw [06:47] before they uh uh commit to any of the [06:52] the points in this very poorly [06:54] structured uh agreement non-aggreement [06:58] uh on on Gaza. So there is great room [07:01] for skepticism and warning uh at this [07:04] particular uh juncture. [07:06] >> Colonel Aovich your take. [07:10] >> I would say that u we have been attacked [07:14] terrible massacre on the 7th of October [07:17] 2023. We wage a war but we lost the [07:22] control of the process of waging the war [07:25] until the results of it. What I do mean [07:29] is that because it took so long almost [07:33] three years and nothing is over yet. [07:35] There is a process of what we can call [07:39] internalizations [07:41] of the of the conflict. I mean that not [07:43] only Israel is facing Hamas and Hamas is [07:46] facing Israel but many actors, not only [07:48] the states in the United States of [07:50] America are involved and these countries [07:53] this involvement mean that they want [07:55] also part of the achievement not only [07:59] giving Israel the victory and the [08:02] achievement but also the way to get [08:05] results. And meanwhile they do what they [08:08] do we lose control and we're in the [08:10] middle of losing more and more control. [08:12] not only on the uh Gaza area but also in [08:16] Lebanon and maybe also in other areas [08:19] around. And what we see the involvement [08:22] of Turkey of Qatar uh is a signal of [08:27] something very bad for Israel because [08:30] because we did not manage to make it [08:35] short. And just one point to add if I [08:38] may. [08:40] The world right now does not accept long [08:42] conflicts. They refuse it. And if it [08:45] takes too long, they start to be [08:47] involved and to get involved and then to [08:49] ask for results now. Even if it's not [08:52] good for you, I mean for Israel. And [08:54] here we are. Here we are in Gaza. Here [08:57] we are in South Lebanon. Here we are [08:58] with Iran. uh we just heard few uh [09:02] minutes ago that maybe there is an [09:03] agreement about the strait and maybe [09:07] other things will follow and it will not [09:10] serve the Israeli interest not because [09:14] they don't like us because we are not in [09:17] the center of the issue. We lost control [09:19] and we lost also their interest to deal [09:22] with us. [09:24] >> Mr. internationalization [09:27] Mr. Rafovich just or Colonel Rafovich [09:30] just mentioned uh two countries Qatar [09:33] and Turkey which have been inserted into [09:36] the so-called Board of Peace. A country [09:39] uh the first one Qatar which hosts [09:42] essentially the leadership of the [09:43] Islamist Hamas and is a sponsor openly a [09:47] sponsor of the Muslim Brotherhood across [09:50] the world. uh something that it [09:52] committed not to do when uh the Trump [09:55] administration in the previous term [09:57] under the 45th presidency of of Mr. [10:00] Donald Trump has pledged to to uh uh [10:04] push away from in order to uh mend the [10:09] fences so to speak with the Emiratis and [10:11] the Saudis who then imposed a blockade [10:14] on the Qataris. Now at the same time [10:18] next to this PR state of Hamas you have [10:22] also Turkey which just last week [10:24] Akanidan hosted the new leader of Hamas [10:27] the replacement so so to speak of uh [10:31] Yahin [10:32] Hala namely and he pledged Ankara's [10:35] support for Hamas and pledged more so [10:39] that Turkey will continue to push for [10:43] the the Palestinian cause quote quote [10:45] unquote, which we know what that means [10:48] when talking to a Hamas official whose [10:51] charter calls for the annihilation and [10:53] eradication of the Jewish state in [10:55] October 7th indicated their will to [10:58] follow through on this pledge. [11:00] What are we dealing with here when we're [11:03] hearing about a so-called reached with [11:07] Hamas in order to disarm them and they [11:10] essentially say, "Well, let Israel uh [11:13] disengage first and then we'll disarm." [11:16] Something doesn't click here. [11:18] >> Yes. Because the old proverbs are being [11:21] rewritten. We used to say that the enemy [11:24] of my enemy is my friend. Now it turns [11:27] out that the friend of my enemy that is [11:31] President Trump is a friend of President [11:34] Erdogan who is a friend of Hamas. [11:38] We can hardly reorient ourselves and [11:42] forgive the pun about the orient but we [11:45] can hardly reorient ourselves in this [11:48] new regional politics, global politics. [11:53] Obviously Qatar Qatar which has given [11:57] President Trump the 400 million [12:01] >> a lot of gifts [12:02] >> or Air Force One plus other stuff. Yes, [12:05] of course. Qatar as well as Turkey as [12:08] well as the Muslim um Brotherhood even [12:11] though they are the enemies of President [12:13] Aissi who is also part of this [12:16] negotiations or mediation. They all want [12:19] Kamas to come on top. They want Hamas to [12:23] show the world that after three years of [12:26] war, they have not been punished [12:30] uh for October the 7th, they have gotten [12:34] away with massacre, not with murder, [12:36] with massacre. And Israel historically [12:41] should not let it go. Well, genocide is [12:44] the perpetration of uh massacre against [12:48] the population with the intent to do so [12:51] in part or in whole. And uh ironically, [12:55] Israel is being accused for what Hamas [12:57] is purportedly doing, well clearly doing [13:01] and sought to do. But uh the world has [13:03] gone upside down in so many ways. Dr. uh [13:07] Dikker, [13:08] fourstar general Jack Keane uh in the [13:11] United States, a retired four-star [13:13] general has um spoken about the [13:16] negotiations being mediated between the [13:18] United States and Iran through Pakistan [13:21] and Qatar uh saying that those two [13:24] actors are not honors mediators because [13:27] they're operating with the intention of [13:29] being favorable towards the Iranians. [13:32] And yet the Trump administration has has [13:34] decided to pursue negotiations with [13:36] them. Um [13:39] the same is happening here with Turkey [13:41] and Qatar visa v the Islamist Hamas in [13:45] the Gaza Strip. The Egyptians is a [13:47] different story. But nonetheless, what [13:50] are we to make out of that? And and what [13:51] is the calculus in Washington? Uh if if [13:55] you could clarify that for us. Well, I [13:58] think if anybody could clarify it, [14:00] Jonathan, they would get um you know the [14:02] Nobel Pri the new Nobel Prize for for [14:04] strategic thinking because nobody really [14:06] knows uh what is happening on the ground [14:09] which is moving so quickly. But what [14:11] your question points to is a very [14:13] important issue of a complete strategic [14:17] um redesign of the Middle Eastern uh of [14:20] the Middle Eastern architecture, Middle [14:22] Eastern geopolitical architecture where [14:24] on the one hand we have Israel, the [14:27] United Israel, the United States in [14:30] terms of the modeling uh Saudi Arabia [14:32] and the Gulf States, Morocco, uh an [14:35] expansion of the Abraham Accords into [14:37] what Prime Minister Netanyahu called in [14:39] July of 2024 for the potential of an [14:41] Abraham security alliance and that and [14:44] there are many candidates across the [14:47] region that are waiting to join that [14:49] alliance at the right moment. On the [14:51] other hand, we've got uh we have uh [14:54] Turkey, Qatar, Pakistan, which could [14:58] play both sides. President Trump is [15:00] particularly uh is particularly enamored [15:03] of not only Erdogan but of uh of Field [15:07] Marshall Amid from Pakistan and who's [15:10] been in the White House several times um [15:12] and has played a key role in trying to [15:16] bring the Iranian regime to the table [15:18] which as I've said before is I think is [15:20] fruitless because at the end of the day [15:22] what we I think what we really need to [15:24] understand and and clearly everyone in [15:26] this conversation understands it we are [15:28] facing ideological warfare that has um [15:32] accented [15:34] essentially what we what we have faced [15:37] opposite the Islamic Republic and all of [15:39] its terror proxies including Sunni [15:42] Hamas, Shiite Isbella, Shiite Houthis, [15:47] uh the popular mobilization forces in [15:49] Iraq, uh and other and other uh uh [15:52] forces even in Latin America and Africa. [15:56] We're we're facing this Iranian octopus [15:59] back fueled by religious warfare. That's [16:02] where we are in Gaza right now. So [16:04] whether you know whether this board of [16:07] peace can deliver anything is a major [16:10] question. But the the the bigger issue, [16:13] Jonathan, is to understand the [16:14] ideological, religiously fueled [16:17] conflict, the forever war that the [16:20] Islamic Republic is prosecuting against [16:24] the United States and against Israel. [16:26] And its major goal, number one goal is [16:29] to cause a head-on collision between [16:32] Israel and its greatest ally and friend, [16:34] the United States of America. And if you [16:37] look at some of the statements coming [16:38] out of Washington, we can see that the [16:41] Islamic Republic has and their proxies [16:44] um together with the radical Sunni [16:47] associates in Qatar and Turkey have been [16:49] successful in doing that. I mean, how [16:51] can you have Qatar and Turkey uh the fi, [16:54] you know, the arsonists on the Islamic [16:56] Sunni side being the firefighters when [16:59] it comes to the border peace and trying [17:01] to help negotiate um a a proper uh deal [17:05] on on on Gaza? [17:08] >> Colonel Aovich, I'd like to pick your [17:10] brain on the European angle uh to [17:13] >> before before if I if I may one point. [17:17] >> Please do. [17:19] We cannot change the Middle East. We [17:22] cannot change Hamas. We cannot change [17:24] the Iranian, the the Muslim Brotherhood. [17:27] We cannot change Turkey. But we can uh [17:30] improve ourselves. And I believe because [17:33] I'm a you know uh reserve officer, [17:37] senior one for a very long time. I think [17:39] that what I said that we lost control, [17:42] I'm saying also that we lost the [17:44] initiative. you know now we are [17:47] following following uh policy dictated [17:51] by the US uh we are allies of course but [17:55] maybe I'm saying I'm asking maybe Israel [17:58] must change rapidly very very uh very [18:04] soon the way of behavior in this [18:08] specific uh conflict facing Hamas also [18:11] facing Iran because at the end of the [18:13] day if you look at the White House now [18:16] they respect they respect they maybe [18:18] don't like but they respect states or [18:21] actors who are taking the initiative and [18:24] if we wait for the green light even if [18:27] it's complicated and we know it uh to do [18:30] thing we will continue to lose control [18:33] I'm talking about losing control on [18:35] processes that are for us in Israel [18:38] existential and we cannot let Qatar or [18:41] the Turks or Hamas or the Iranian Even [18:44] if they are different tomorrow after [18:47] tomorrow, we cannot let them uh I mean [18:51] lead lead the game, lead the dance. It's [18:53] impossible for us. So maybe Israel [18:56] should be different. Maybe they will not [18:59] like it like today in uh in Washington [19:02] DC. that they will respect us and we [19:05] need to be respected because we need to [19:08] fight differently cleverly because again [19:11] I repeat we cannot change like just said [19:14] Dr. [19:15] We cannot change all these enemies, all [19:18] these countries, all these ideology, but [19:20] we can improve ourselves. That's the [19:22] only thing that we can uh do right now. [19:25] I believe [19:26] >> we will get uh to the European angle [19:29] momentarily in the next cycle, but I'd [19:31] like to follow up uh one more question [19:33] to you, Colonel Fovich. Um you're [19:36] talking about taking strategic [19:38] initiative. A strategic initiative [19:40] usually is taken by a government that is [19:42] set out to do a a long-term investment [19:46] even though there also uh strategic [19:48] maneuvering in in short short-term type [19:51] of of engagements. But [19:55] considering the political climate and [19:57] the political situation that we're [19:58] currently in ahead of the election of [20:01] the 27th of October uh of this year, is [20:05] there enough room to maneuver [20:06] strategically at that scale? [20:11] >> There was room enough to maneuver [20:13] before. But when we saw and when we [20:16] heard the uh way how the president of [20:19] the US uh talk about the prime minister [20:21] of Israel uh with no respect let's call [20:26] it clearly it was the first time to my [20:29] to my opinion to my to my to my memory [20:32] maybe air will will give some point [20:35] about it uh talk about our prime [20:38] minister in Israel and that mean that [20:41] prime minister of Israel is totally [20:43] depending totally depending for his own [20:46] survival, political survival on the uh [20:50] uh political support from the White [20:52] House, which is not good at all for [20:54] Israel when we are in this so difficult, [20:59] sensitive, and I would say maybe uh very [21:02] dangerous situation for the next years, [21:05] maybe even the next months. [21:08] Indeed, regardless of who the prime [21:09] minister is, there needs to be a respect [21:12] uh for for the national consortium. Um [21:15] Mr. We don't have very much time left. [21:18] >> Yes. Um [21:20] let's leave aside the the politics. [21:22] Politics notwithstanding, [21:25] there is a dilemma here. Operationally, [21:28] one can understand [21:31] recommendation. [21:32] Strategically, after three years, Israel [21:36] must disengage. Israel must disengage [21:40] from Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, and Iran [21:45] in order to reconstitute its forces, its [21:49] reserves, [21:51] the national will, the [21:52] >> even before the war is over. [21:56] >> This is the dilemma. Operationally, [21:58] uh, Olivier is right. But if the war [22:02] goes on and on, the national will and [22:06] spirit are going to suffer a lot. So [22:09] this is why leadership is needed because [22:12] you have two values here in collision [22:16] and therefore [22:18] um Israel should find a way to disengage [22:21] without giving Hamas even the semblance [22:25] of victory. Well, that is already the [22:27] the question of uh schools of thought [22:30] within doctrine of of strategy. Do you [22:34] uh draw up strategies based on [22:36] operational necessities and then dictate [22:38] from there the tactical approaches or [22:41] the other way around where you establish [22:42] strategies regardless of operational [22:45] necessities? [22:46] >> You don't have enough manpower for that [22:48] right now in order to go on and on and [22:51] on until you are satisfied that you have [22:54] reached your goals. Well, uh we are [22:56] drawing near to the end of the uh the [22:58] program today and I'd like to give two [23:00] minutes sharp. I will stop you in in the [23:03] two-minute mark um to give a uh a uh [23:06] closing analysis. Uh I I'd like to ask [23:10] also if you could bring in somewhat of [23:12] the European angle into the story. Dr. [23:14] Dyker, we'll start with you [23:16] >> very quickly. Uh uh Jonathan and and [23:19] Amir uh Israel for the first time uh in [23:24] a long time has defensible borders in [23:27] the north and in the south. In the south [23:30] opposite Gaza, in the north opposite [23:32] Syria and Lebanon. This is a uh this is [23:35] a doctrine of existential security that [23:37] was first established after the 1967 war [23:41] in giving us in to Israel's east for the [23:43] first time topographical and advantage [23:46] and strategic depth notwithstanding the [23:49] important observation that Amir just [23:51] made about about you know war of [23:53] attrition uh and and and uh national [23:56] will over time and capacity. Israel must [24:00] maintain strategic depth, buffer zones, [24:03] demilitarized areas uh in in all these [24:07] areas for the first time since October [24:10] 7th in order to avoid the next October [24:12] 7th. And we will face Israel will face [24:15] massive political pressure coming from [24:17] Europe and the United States in my [24:19] assessment in order to withdraw to the [24:22] pre to the October 6 borders which would [24:24] be uh almost uh uh suicidal. Now the the [24:29] second point is that Israel must [24:32] tomorrow dedicate several billion [24:35] shekels to the eighth front which is [24:39] political war, the diplomatic war, the [24:41] psychological war, the social media war, [24:44] the legacy media war, the economic war. [24:47] This is the war for Israel's existence, [24:50] for Israel's legitimacy that has been [24:52] hijacked and co-opted by the Islamic [24:55] Republic with the help of China, Russia, [24:58] Turkey, Qatar, and Al Jazzer and the [25:01] others. This is the war that Israel must [25:03] prosecute and we must com we must be [25:06] exposing and outing uh our enemies 24/7 [25:11] on that eighth front, Jonathan, in order [25:12] to win this war of international [25:15] legitimacy. Thank you Dr. Dikker. [25:18] Colonel Rafovich, the floor is yours. [25:22] >> I agree totally about this last [25:24] statement. Uh the problem is that for [25:28] years we say that we need more resources [25:31] to deal with the PR or influence [25:35] information warfare and government say [25:38] it's good, it's important. They don't do [25:40] what we need to to do. uh Europe is [25:44] almost lost except maybe today Germany [25:47] but it's a big big fight and uh in this [25:50] war we are again facing an existential [25:54] threat not only because of the enemy at [25:56] the borders but because of a huge wave [25:59] of the legitimacy of the state of Israel [26:03] and now uh to talk about the sha is not [26:06] good enough to make the young generation [26:09] understand that there is a need a real [26:11] need for state of Israel to be to be [26:13] here and uh it's a new challenge. I have [26:17] now the keys to uh to to know exactly [26:20] what we should do, but it is clear that [26:22] it is it is a strategic need for Israel [26:25] accompanying the the the the way or how [26:28] to wage and to uh and to win wars. We [26:32] cannot win war in the future in the [26:34] present without winning the what we call [26:38] basically the PR warfare. It's [26:40] impossible to win. we can win on the on [26:42] the on the uh on the ground on the on [26:45] the field but for now we lost uh and [26:49] it's terrible because it's a frustration [26:50] for Israelis it's a frustration for [26:52] Jewish people it's frustration for [26:54] people supporting Israel and we are the [26:57] only ones right now dealing with that [27:00] except with few friends all over but [27:02] it's very very very uh worrisome [27:07] >> thank you very much uh Colonel Rafovich [27:09] and Dr. Dyker for all your insights [27:11] today. I'd like also to thank Mr. Amir [27:14] Olen. Unfortunately, this is all the [27:16] time that we have for today. Uh and to [27:18] thank your our viewers as well until our [27:20] next edition from here in Jerusalem. [27:22] Shalom. [27:29] [music] [27:37] >> [music] [27:42] [music] [27:46] >> For more of TV7Israel's productions and [27:49] editorials, we invite you to visit our [27:51] website at www.tv7israelnews.com.
