Transcript [00:00] I'm joined by Eric Mandal, founder and [00:02] director of the Middle East political [00:03] information network, as well as our i24 [00:05] News senior Middle East correspondent [00:07] Ariel Osaran. Gentlemen, thanks for [00:09] being with me in the I24 News studio. [00:11] Ariel, you have a scoop for us. You have [00:13] been speaking to a source who is [00:14] familiar with the US Iran negotiations [00:17] at this moment. What can you share? [00:20] Yeah. So, uh, bleak picture being [00:22] presented by this source close to the [00:24] negotiations saying that the mediators [00:26] have warned Iran that President Trump [00:30] may lose interest in an agreement if one [00:33] is not reached by the midterm elections [00:36] and may decide afterwards to either [00:40] deepen the blockade against Iran or even [00:43] order renewed strikes against the [00:45] Islamic Republic. This is what the [00:47] source is telling me. quote, "If Iran [00:49] doesn't accept the agreement soon, Trump [00:51] will either decide to continue or deepen [00:53] the blockade on Iran or launch renewed [00:54] offensive against the Islamic Republic [00:58] with the mediators telling Iran to take [01:00] these negotiations seriously. According [01:03] to this source, messages are being [01:06] exchanged between the sides on a daily [01:09] basis and there's agreement on 70 to 80% [01:13] of the details of this new proposal that [01:15] was brought forth by the Pakistani and [01:18] Qatari mediators. But the main sticking [01:21] points remain as they were uh up until [01:24] now. that is for example the mechanism [01:26] for unfreezing the Iranian funds as well [01:29] as the um different methods to uh [01:33] downgrade the highlyenriched uranium [01:36] stock piles that Iran holds. The ball is [01:39] now in Iran's court. The US has uh given [01:42] its uh response to the proposal and [01:45] right now the mediators are waiting for [01:47] Iran to give their response after they [01:50] reach approval on the highest levels. [01:52] source says this is something that takes [01:55] time. Now this new proposal is similar [01:57] to the Islamabad memorandum of [02:00] understanding which the source says Iran [02:02] was the first to violate and their [02:04] violations largely outweigh the US [02:07] violations of thisou. [02:11] uh but it's it differs from the original [02:13] MOAU by the fact that this is going to [02:15] be a phased implementation rather than [02:17] trying to link all the issues together [02:20] similar to the um to the model of the [02:24] Gaza agreement. Uh under this uh [02:27] proposal that is being discussed um it [02:30] starts the first phase 7 days during [02:32] which the straight of Hamuz will be [02:33] reopened. the US will lift its blockade [02:36] on Iranian ports and only then will they [02:38] enter discussions on the other issues. [02:41] Now the source said that um basically no [02:44] one in the GCC that's the Gulf [02:46] Cooperation Council wants the war to [02:49] resume and he added that in addition to [02:51] the Pakistani and Qatari mediation [02:54] efforts the UAE is also involved in [02:57] trying to solidify this agreement with [03:00] Emirati national security officials [03:02] maintaining back channels with the IRGC [03:06] directly flying to Thran to try and [03:09] convince the Iranians to agree [03:12] to the American terms. We reached out to [03:15] Emirati officials uh to comment but we [03:18] did not receive a response. So the [03:21] current situation based on this uh [03:24] source familiar with the negotiations is [03:26] that the mediators have warned Iran to [03:28] take the negotiations seriously and it [03:31] is very possible that if an agreement [03:33] isn't reached by the the midterms and [03:35] President Trump may order renewed [03:37] strikes against Iran. Ariel, fantastic [03:39] reporting, writing an inside look at [03:40] where these negotiations stand at this [03:43] moment. Thank you for bringing that to [03:44] our viewers. Eric, with this in mind, if [03:47] the ball is in Iran's court and the [03:49] threat for renewed American military [03:51] action is real within the next month [03:53] after the midterm elections, is that [03:55] threat itself enough to get the Iranians [03:58] to agree to a deal that so far they [04:00] haven't been able to? [04:01] >> Well, they agreed to theou and then [04:03] within 24 to 48 hours they started [04:05] attacking the straits of Hormuz. Um, and [04:08] people say that's because their [04:09] leadership is dysfunctional. Um, you [04:12] have hardliners and you have others. I [04:14] don't know exactly how to play that. Um, [04:16] I think if America gives a lifeline to [04:21] the Iranians, that being $6 billion, [04:24] paying off the interest, whatever method [04:26] that they do, that is a mistake. [04:28] Stopping the blockade is a mistake. That [04:30] is a victory. and then waiting for them [04:33] to negotiate on nuclear which they have [04:36] never done in good faith. Um I you know [04:39] one I spoke to a senior intelligence [04:41] person um who told me he thinks the [04:43] president is just as likely to do [04:47] nothing sit on his hands and let the [04:48] economic blockade continue. The question [04:51] is what will the Iranians do as that [04:53] continues and and they maybe campaign [04:55] the Bajis and campaign the RGC. Um that [04:59] you know then they may lash out. I don't [05:01] see them lashing out against Israel [05:03] because they know that Israel will not [05:05] hold back. Israel will hit not only [05:08] nuclear but infrastructure um and [05:10] ballistic missiles. And so if Israel's [05:13] red line what it really needs to be any [05:15] nuclear weapons work any enrichment any [05:19] new centrifuges any increased ballistic [05:22] missile production those are existential [05:24] issues in Israel should act upon them [05:27] and really needs to be in conjunction [05:29] with the president but we're dealing [05:30] with an unconventional president that [05:32] anxiety leads to all the speculation and [05:34] misinformation and disinformation and we [05:37] don't know Iran may act because it [05:39] thinks it think know what the president [05:41] is doing but really doesn't want to. So, [05:43] there's a lot of moving parts there in [05:45] the midterms, both the and the Israeli [05:47] election all play into it.
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