Transcript [00:00] In the straight of Huz, ships are still waiting for permission to move. Insurance companies are [00:06] still calculating the risk and the world is still checking every rumor coming from Thran or from [00:12] Washington. Even with diplomats talk about an agreement that may be closed, the waters [00:19] around Iran remain one of the most dangerous and expensive places for the global economy. [00:26] So, is Iran really capable of paralyzing the world through one strait? Or is the Middle [00:33] East's greatest economic weapon no longer as frightening as it once was? I'm Pinto and this [00:41] is your ground report on the war of Israel and the United States against Iran, the revolutionary [00:46] guards and the entire terrorist system that Tehran operates across the Middle East. To understand the [00:55] great pressure on President Trump, we need to begin where military war becomes economic war, [01:03] not only on the battlefield, not only in the skies of Iran, but in the price of a barrel of oil, [01:11] in the price of an airline ticket, in the cost of maritime shipping, and in the price of a simple [01:19] product that reaches the supermarket shelf. With the beginning of the war against Iran, the broader [01:26] Iranian plan was exposed. Not only to survive the strikes by Israel and the United States, but also [01:32] to send the pain back to the world, blocking the straight of Hormuz, threatening the ships, [01:38] laying sea mines, attacking energy infrastructure and trying to turn the Persian Gulf into an area [01:45] every shipping company would fear entering. This is not only a military response. This is [01:52] a method. Iran understands that it cannot defeat the United States in a regular navy battle. It [01:59] also understands that Israel and the United States can strike the heart of its military [02:03] system. So it turns to other tools. It tries to take its geographical advantage, its proximity to [02:10] the straight of Homus and turn it into a weapon against the entire world. The straight of Hummus [02:17] is a narrow passage between the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. It looks small on the map, [02:23] but it carries enormous weight. Through this area passes a massive amount of global energy, [02:30] oil, liqufied natural gas, fuels, goods, and part of the chain that keeps the global economy [02:38] moving. When Iran threatens Hormuz, it is not threatening only one ship. It is threatening and [02:46] sending a message to the markets in London, traders in Singapore, factories in Europe, [02:54] drivers in the United States of America, and governments in Asia. If the strait is not safe, [03:01] the price rises almost everywhere. And it happened fast. With the beginning of the crisis, [03:10] oil prices jumped by tens of percents. At gas stations, in the air, at sea, [03:16] and in contracts of industrial companies, everyone began pricing in fear. Airliners check fuel costs. [03:26] Shipping companies at risk premiums. Insurance companies demand more money to cover the passage [03:33] through a dangerous area. And every increase like this does not remain only with the ship [03:41] arose forward all the way to the consumer. And that is why hummus became the center of pressure [03:49] on Donald Trump. Because the war against Iran is not only a question of missiles, [03:54] aircrafts and eliminations. It is also a questions of inflation, markets, elections, [04:02] industry, and the ability of an American president to say to his public, I am protecting security, [04:08] but I'm not breaking the economy. And this is exactly where Iran is trying to apply additional [04:14] pressure because Thran wants the world to look at this war and think maybe it is better to stop. [04:22] Maybe it is better to reach an agreement. Maybe it is better to give Iran part of what they want [04:28] just so that the oil will flow once more. This is economic blackmail in the language of a naval [04:35] warfare. But here comes the big question. Does it still work the way it once did? And to answer [04:43] this question, we need to go back to October 1973. During the Yomipur war, the Arab states understood [04:52] that they had a powerful tool of pressure over the West, which was oil. They imposed an embargo [04:59] on countries that supported the Jewish state of Israel and reduced their supply. And within a [05:05] short time, prices jumped dramatically. In the Western world, a sense of shock was created. [05:12] Long lines at gas stations, factories forced to reduce activity, families changing driving habits, [05:20] governments trying to understand how a modern economy could be stopped because of a barrel of [05:26] oil. It was a defining moment. The world of 1973 was much more dependent on the Middle East. Cows [05:34] consumed more fuel. Alternative energies barely existed on a meaningful scale. I'm talking about [05:42] domestic production in the United States did not provide the same safety net that exists [05:47] today. Energy markets were less flexible and when OPEC and the Arab states used oil as a weapon, [05:56] the West felt that it was being choked. The crisis created a world that people feared for years. It [06:04] is a dangerous situation in which prices rise but the economy does not grow. The public pays more, [06:11] businesses struggle to expand, central banks get trapped, and the government struggles to [06:17] choose between biting inflation and preventing a recession. The trauma of 1970s changed the entire [06:25] world. Countries began searching for oil in other places. The North Sea gained greater importance. [06:32] Alaska became part of the American strategic thinking. Car manufacturers were forced to [06:38] build more fuelefficient cars. Governments created emergency reserves. Countries began to understand [06:45] that energy is not only an economic issue but part of a national security. And 50 years later, [06:53] Kamini and the revolutionary guards tried to pull the same threat off the shelf. But the shelf has [07:01] changed. The world of 2026 is still dependent on oil and gas, but it is no longer captive. In the [07:10] same way, there are more energy sources. There is more production outside of the Middle East. [07:16] There is natural gas from the United States, from Norway, and also from Canada. There is solar and [07:23] wind energy on a larger scale. There are emergency reserves. There is an ability to release oil into [07:30] the market. And there is a whole global market that reacts faster even if it is still frightened. [07:37] The meaning is simple. Iran can cause great pain, but it's harder for it to cause total collapse. [07:45] And that is exactly the difference between shock and collapse. Shock, yes. Price increases, [07:53] yes. Damage to logistics, yes. Political pressure on Trump, absolutely. But total paralysis of the [08:00] global economy, the kind that Thran may have hoped to see, is a much more complicated story. [08:17] So the global economy learned from the pain of 1973. It did not become immune. [08:24] There is no such thing as a full immunity when the most important maritime passage in the Middle [08:31] East becomes dangerous. But it did become more diversified. And that is what troubles Iran. [08:40] If the world can hold just a little bit longer, then Iran is losing its leverage. They can still [08:48] threaten. They can still raise the prices. They can still damage the markets and their confidence, [08:54] but they can no longer be sure that the entire system will immediately bend. And meanwhile, [09:02] even inside the Gulf itself, the Arab states are not behaving as they did in 1973. The United Arab [09:11] Emirates, one of the most important countries in the Gulf. I'm talking about the energy market, [09:18] chose to leave OPEC and also OPEC plus. This is a dramatic step because OPEC was created to allow [09:26] oil states to coordinate the production influence prices and then to preserve the power against the [09:32] world's major consumers. And for years, countries like the Emiratis had to live with quotes and [09:40] amounts that they can produce. They were told how much they were allowed to create in terms of oil, [09:46] how much they were allowed to sell, at what prices, when to reduce, when to open the tap. It [09:51] was a game of collective discipline, usually under the Saudi Arabian leadership. But the Amiratis is [09:59] now looking at a different reality. It sees Iran threatening the Gulf. It sees risks to its ports, [10:07] to its airports, to its energy facilities, trade and tourism. It sees a crisis in which whoever [10:15] keeps it inside a rigged production framework may limit its ability to respond to the market. [10:22] And so, it's a message, a clear message. Abu Dhabi wants freer hands. They want to do what they want [10:32] in the oil market. And this is very important because if the amiratis if they can produce and [10:39] also sell more oil outside of the OPEC limits, it can add supply to the markets in moments of [10:47] pressure. And that that does not remove humus from the map. It does not eliminate the mines. It [10:54] does not solve the Iranian missile threat, but it does reduce part of Iran's ability to turn every [11:03] shortage into a global chokeold. And here here a domino effect can begin and more countries more [11:13] countries that no longer depend on OPEC that no longer are under the OPEC umbrella. It means that [11:23] the power of this cartel is shrinking. It limits them during a crisis. They may look for a more [11:32] independent path. Once more, producers compete for the market share instead of preserving a [11:41] joint quota. The price receives pressure in the opposite direction. This competition. There's [11:49] no fear to raise the prices. Only the natural markets decides how much production is needed [11:57] based on supply and demand. And this is a very big point in this war. Because Iran, they tried [12:05] to use the oil to frighten the entire world. But the crisis is also pushing other countries to [12:13] break their old frameworks. What was once a power club of the Middle East is beginning to look less [12:20] united, less disciplined, and more exposed to different national interests. In simple words, [12:27] the region's economic weapon is still dangerous, but the hand holding it is no longer as stable as [12:34] it once was. And now we need to understand the dilemma of the Gulf States because on the one [12:42] hand they want the straight open up. They need the energy exports. They need tourism. They need [12:48] financial stability. They need ships to arrive, aircraft carriers, aircrafts to land, take off, [12:55] investors to continue believing that the Gulf is a safe place to do business in. On the other hand, [13:01] they do not want a full war with Iran on their soil. They know Thran can launch drones, missiles, [13:08] or activate local networks. They remember that every energy facility, port or airport [13:15] can become a military target. And so they pressure Washington towards diplomacy, but also strengthen [13:22] air defense, maritime security, and their ties with the United States and with Israel. This is [13:29] not a contradiction. This is the reality of the Gulf. They want to calm the crisis without giving [13:38] Iran too big of a reward. They want the opening of Hmus without recognizing Iranian control over [13:45] an international passage. They want oil flowing, but they do not want the world to get used to the [13:52] idea that every ship has to pass through the mood of the revolutionary guards and pay them for it. [14:00] And that is why the question of humus is not only whether ships can move. The question is [14:07] under what conditions do they move. So if Iran agrees to remove the mines and allow free passage, [14:15] that's one step. If it demands coordination fees, special route or the right to decide who passes [14:24] and who does not pass, that's a different story. That's not freedom of navigation. That's pressure [14:30] mechanism with a diplomatic flag. And this this is where Israel enters the picture. Israel looks [14:39] at the emerging agreement and asks a very simple question. Does it dismantle the capabilities or [14:46] only delay an explosion? If the agreement opens Huz but leaves Iran with its missile systems, [14:54] it drones, its mines, past boats, his valadis and the militias, then Iran has not surrendered. It [15:03] has only moved from a phase of open fire to a phase of waiting. And if the nuclear [15:09] issue remains open or if Iran keeps the enriched material as a card, then the truly great risk has [15:16] not disappeared. It is only returning to another folder. That's why Israel speaks carefully. There [15:24] is an understanding that the world wants quiet. There is an understanding that Trump needs an [15:29] achievement. There is an understanding that the Gulf States want to return to routine. But there [15:36] is also a bitter experience in this region. A ceasefire that does not dismantle the threat, [15:46] that allows an enemy to count the days until the next round is not good for anybody. [15:57] If this reports helps you understand what really is happening behind the headlines, [16:02] do not remain just as a viewer on the sidelines. Click the like, share this video with friends, [16:08] with family, and anyone who needs to understand the truth about this war. And do not forget to [16:14] subscribe to TBN Israel on our YouTube channel because we bring you the picture from the ground, [16:20] from the sea, from the air, from diplomacy, and from the battle of public opinion, of sharing [16:27] the truth. So every share from you helps us reach the world with what's happening here so [16:34] that they will know how to pray and be part of the situation. And we invite you to take part in [16:39] something that is real, something that is rooted in this land and in our hearts. The Rebuild Israel [16:47] campaign continues and it is bringing life back to Israel's north. So along Israel's northern border, [16:53] an area marked by war, displacement, and loss, we are planting an apple orchard, not as a symbol [17:01] for a single moment, but as part of a long-term commitment to rebuild what was damaged. And this [17:07] orchard is more than agriculture. It creates jobs for local families. It helps communities return [17:14] and rebuild again. And it sends a clear message to the people of Israel, you are not alone. [17:20] When you donate, you're not just giving, you are rebuilding. And your support puts trees in [17:26] the ground. It restores livelihoods. It transforms land that is scaled by war into a land that grows [17:33] again. This is how renewal takes root. This is how Israel rebuilds after war. Join us in restoring [17:40] the north and strengthening the future of the land of Israel. Go now to tbn.org/rebuildisrael. [17:48] Again, that's tbn.org. org/rebuild Israel and help us restore hope and bless the future. [18:00] Now, let us return to the economy because there is one more layer to this story because [18:06] Iran also hurts itself. When Homus is closed or becomes dangerous, it is not only Saudi Arabia, [18:15] the Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait that are hurting. Iran itself is also hurting because they need to [18:22] export oil. They need to bring money in. Iran needs to maintain an economy that is already [18:30] under sanctions, erosion, corruption, and internal pressure. All that does not leave on time becomes [18:38] a problem. Storage tanks fill up. Production shells need adjustments. Customers look for [18:46] other suppliers. Smuggling networks become complicated. And a country that tries to use [18:53] energy as a weapon discovers that it also depends on pipelines, ports, ships, and insurance. That [19:00] is why the Iranian story is a boomerang. The revolutionary guards wanted to choke the world [19:06] to Homus, but they also closed parts of their own breathing route. The longer the crisis continues, [19:14] the more pressure on Thran grows. Not only from the outside, also from within. Companies, [19:21] traders, revolutionary guards, state mechanisms, and everyone who lives off the money that comes in [19:28] from the energy sales, all of them feel the price. Our regime can speak the language of resistance [19:35] but its bank accounts speak in a colder language and here Trump's is trying to play this game. On [19:45] the one hand he's threatening the naval blockade on Iran continues. American forces in the region [19:53] remain. Naval and air assets continue to maintain pressure. On the other hand, he opens a door to [20:00] an agreement. If Iran opens Hmus, removes mines, allows free passage and enters the talks, it can [20:08] receive relief, open ports, and perhaps receive access to funds that have been frozen in the past. [20:15] Frozen because of sanctions. This is a classic staking carrot. But in the region where every side [20:22] holds a match next to a few, it's very dangerous. So Iran wants to receive relief without giving up [20:30] the pillars of its power. And Trump wants a deal that looks like a victory. And then the Gulf [20:36] States, they want stability. And Islan here, we want to make sure that the threat is not preserved [20:43] for another day. And the global market wants one thing, certainty. What will happen? But certainty [20:52] does not come from statements. It comes from ships passing again and again without incident. It comes [21:01] from insurance companies lowering their premiums. It comes from tankers sailing on a normal route [21:08] without asking whether the revolutionary guards approve or not. It comes from mines that are [21:13] actually being removed from the water from anti-ship missiles not waiting on the coast. and [21:19] from Iran understanding that renewed disruption will cost it an immediate price. Until that [21:26] happens, remains a question mark. We can see oil prices fall on a day when there is a good rumor, [21:36] a good leak. We can see a spike on the day when there is a new threat. The market reacts quickly, [21:44] sometimes too quickly. But behind the graphs lies a simple truth. As long as the straight [21:51] is not completely safe, the global economy has not returned to normal. And still, this must be said [21:58] in a balanced way. This is not 1973. The world is not calm, but it is also not helpless. It learned [22:06] to build reserves. It learned to diversify. It has resources. It learned to develop alternative [22:14] energy. It learned to use natural gas, pipelines, American production, and a more flexible market. [22:21] It learned that whoever depends completely on one region gives his enemy leverage. Iran tried [22:28] to return the world to the trauma of the 1970s, but the world did not fully return there. It was [22:35] pressured, yes, it paid the price, yes, it also showed that it has more ways to balance itself. [22:44] That's not a reason to underestimate Iran. On the contrary, precisely because its economic [22:50] weapon is less absolute. It may search for other ways to raise the price. More drones, [22:57] more threats against the ships, more cyber attacks, more pressure on the energy facilities, [23:02] more attempts to activate hisbala, the houthis, and all their militias all around this world. [23:08] A regime that feels its card is eroding sometimes tries to prove that it is still dangerous and that [23:16] is the risk of the coming weeks. If the agreement is signed, the world will want to celebrate [23:23] falling prices. But here in Israel, we have to check what is written in the fine print. Is Iran [23:31] really stopping its threats against hummus? Is it giving up the production development of weapons? [23:40] Is it giving up the option to collect fees from passing ships on their routes? Is the nuclear [23:46] issue entering a real solution? Are the proxies being blocked? Isbala in Lebanon paying a price? [23:54] Are the Houthis in Yemen stopping their threats? Are there any shipping lanes that are still [24:01] affected? Because if the answer is no, then hummus is only a maritime passage, one chapter of a much [24:09] larger problem that we did not solve. The Iranian system is built to apply pressure in several areas [24:16] at once. If one door is closed up, it looks for a window. If pressure is applied at sea, [24:23] it activates the missiles. If pressure is applied on the nuclear issue, it activates the proxies. [24:29] If pressure is applied through sanctions, it tries to ignite the energy market. That is why this war [24:35] is not measured only by the number of strikes. It is measured by the ability to dismantle a [24:41] mechanism. Hm. Is a test. If the world succeeds in opening the strait without giving Iran the right [24:48] to blackmail everyone again, it will be a serious blow to the revolutionary guards. And if the [24:57] agreement gives Thran money, time, and legitimacy without dismantling its tools of pressure, [25:04] then Iran will emerge from the crisis without the opposite lesson. Because next time they [25:12] understand that they need to press harder, apply more economic pressure on everybody because it's [25:19] working. And he lied the difference between a solution and just a pause to the problem. [25:26] A solution means that the waters are open, the threat decreases, and the Iranian system [25:32] loses the ability to blackmail the world through energy. A pause means prices drop for a few weeks, [25:39] the markets breathe, and then everyone discovers that the political minds are still waiting beneath [25:45] the surface. The strait may open, but the Iranian threat will not disappear just because the ships [25:52] move again. And the question now is whether the world has learned the lesson of 1973 or whether [26:00] it is about to pay again to buy temporary quiet from Thran. Let me know what you think about this [26:07] in the comments section. In the meantime, keep spreading the truth. Follow us and [26:11] most importantly, don't forget to click on the subscribe button so that you stay tuned to the [26:15] truth in real time and never miss another update of Boots on the Ground. Keep looking for us, [26:21] Mati Roashan in Pinto, on our social media platforms to see life in Israel through our [26:25] eyes. And the best thing that you can do for this situation and in general for every situation is [26:31] to pray. So I'm calling on all of you now to unite in prayer, especially for our leaders, [26:38] for wisdom, for our soldiers, and for the peace of Jerusalem. And we'll see you again next time. [26:49] Hello, this is Mati here in Jerusalem with TBN Israel. This is Yaya Pinto from TVN Israel here [26:55] in Jerusalem. TBNN Israel is keeping viewers informed with Israel focused news, culture, [27:01] and what God is doing in this land. Support TBN Israel today online at tbn.org/israel. Thank you.
